Wales v New Zealand preview: What odds that elusive victory arrives when we least expect it?

By Joe Smith

Wales host New Zealand on Saturday wearing their usual tag when this fixture comes around – clear underdogs.

For the host nation it’s a first outing since July’s three-Test tour of South Africa, and although it has been an uncharacteristically poor year for the All Blacks, bookmakers still have them as short as 6-1 on to extend their 69-year winning run against Wales.

New Zealand named a strong side on Thursday, with matches to follow against Scotland and England, but their strength whenever they come to Cardiff undoubtedly comes also from the psychological grip they seem to have over the Welsh.

Add that to an aura that is arguably unrivalled in world rugby, South Africa included.

New Zealand have three Rugby World Cup wins, the most points scored in a match (145), the highest win percentage in history between 2000-2020 when they won 77% of their matches.

They still boast the longest reign as world number one and the most consecutive matches without a loss. Not to mention they have more wins than losses against any team that they have ever faced.

The All Blacks are coming off the back of beating Japan 38-31 last week in the Lipovitian-D Challenge Cup, although by their traditionally high standards it wasn’t exactly an impressive display.

Despite the All Blacks’ veneer of invincibility, they are currently struggling to live up to their superior status.

With their worst start calendar year in three decades – four losses and a win percentage of 55% – Wales may sense a chance to create some new rugby legends.

We have been here before, granted. Wales have approached this fixture in the past with far more positivity and anticipation than they have done this week.

But Pivac’s team has a look of quality and balance about it as well, not least in the back row which sees the return of stalwart Justin Tipuric as captain alongside young gun Tommy Reffell of Leicester and Taulupe Faletau.

What odds that elusive victory against the All Blacks arrives when we least expect it?

We’ll see.